Friday, January 16, 2009

unintended consequences!!


There's a bit of angst in stamp dealing circles over the so-called SecUrity Machins. The worry is that the apparent inability to source 'mint no gummed' in the future may damage the whole GB kiloware trade.

This is a difficult one. The existence of 'unfranked' is really a result of over-mechanization. In the past when post was hand postmarked this very rarely happened. Now a lot of larger packages arrive unpostmarked or, worse still, wrecked by biro cancellations. This is particularly annoying when the stamps already have light CDS postmarks!

I do however suspect that a lot of unfranked in kiloware comes from unused stamped addressed envelopes. These stamps have NOT fulfilled a postal purpose so it is still legal to use them.

I suspect the new Machins WILL be soakable. If they use the same gum as the 'unsoakable' recent Xmas NVI commems then they will come off paper with difficulty.

But if they're not what may this mean?

It will take a long time before these appear in large quantities in charity collected GB kiloware.

If collectors find that they are soakable (with difficulty) then the price will fall by around 10%.

If they are unsoakable then kiloware prices may fall by 50%.

This will definitely affect the viability of some charities to continue to deal with stamps.

And what are the unintended consequences?

Well I spend £6000+ a year on postage sending out kiloware. The MARGINAL extra cost of delivering my parcels probably cost the PO less than a pound. The price of a parcel is £12.24 postage. If it's no longer feasible to sell GB kiloware at a profit all this income will be lost to the PO, as will the cost to the charities of sending the stamps to me. Oddly, the vast majority of us in the kiloware trade NEVER use mint no gummed!

By announcing the SecUrity Machins the PO is signalling to the UK public that it is possible to reuse stamps! How many times have you received a letter with a stamp clearly cut from an envelope and sometimes even just stuck on with sellotape? I can see this hapening a lot more in the future!

If the stamps are unsoakable then they'll simply be cut from envelopes and reused.

If this idea takes off will the PO spread its use to more and more stamps, perhaps even commemoratives? This will reduce the number of collectors taking an interest in GB material, eventually materializing as less sales to the Bureau.

What are the extra costs of using these security features? Is it less than the (totally estimated) loss to the PO of reused stamps? Or the loss of the kiloware trade? The loss of goodwill if charities can no longer raise money this way?

Because the real point isn't unfranked material, but franked stamps. If these are no longer collectable in the normal way (ie soaked off paper) will collectors abandon GB stamps in droves, affecting the profits of Tallents House?

It is particularly below the belt for the PO to imply that current GB stamps can be cleaned of their postmarks. This is an urban legend and simply isn't possible. Security features have been used since the Penny Black, most have been dropped eventually as they are not worth the bother. I suspect that that will be the case with these SecUrity features!

So don't worry!
Posted by Picasa

No comments: